New technology markets - hope or hype?: A case study of wireless data for enterprises

Abstract

The motivation for this project arose out of a curiosity to understand how a Product Manager approaches a New Technology market. It is observed that the success of a new technology is often difficult to predict. Hence, Product Managers find it tough to systematically plan and allocate resources. The source of complexity in new technology markets is attributed to the following factors: - • Lack of knowledge of end usage • Lack of awareness in the market about the technology • Unpredictable Costs • Threat of substitutes • Dependence on complementary products Given these problems, the objective of the project was to find out, how one would predict new technology markets. A methodology is proposed, which takes inputs from experts and consumers, to generate a product strategy. A case study approach was adopted to test the effectiveness of the methodology and "Wireless Data for Enterprises" was chosen as the product area. The main characteristics of Wireless Data Market are: • Different players - Computing, Communications, Content and Consumer Electronics • Many standards/standard making bodies operating in tandem • Plethora of avenues such as GSM/GPRS/2G/3G/W-LAN/Bluetooth • Dependencies on bearer, devices, services • Need for infrastructure and huge capital expenditure The case study method included interviewing Experts and the Consumers. Five experts from different parts of the wireless value chain were approached with a questionnaire followed up with one-to-one interviews. Their responses were analyzed to generate product/technology strategy. Additionally, consumers were approached with questionnaires for further validation of the experts' views on the market. The feasibility analysis was carried out to determine whether the firm should enter the market based on the product/technology strategy. A sensitivity analysis was also performed to test the robustness of the results. The key findings in the case study of wireless data market are: - • The users need to be educated regarding the technology and value proposition • The current user experience is not yet good for widespread adoption • Killer Application needs to be identified, to cater to widespread adoption. • Smooth Integration with existing Infrastructure is a critical issue • It would probably take one more year to hit a growth phase In a scenario, where conventional demand forecasting is not possible, as there are not many variables to work on and there is no past data to go by, an approach such as this is helpful to understand the dominant issues in the market. It also ensures a better understanding of applications in technology markets and industry characteristics. The proposed approach, in summary, helps product managers to determine the appropriate strategy in an uncertain technology market and allocate resources accordingly.