India s financial system and architecture 2014: fault lines part deux

Abstract

This paper examines the current Indian economic crisis in the context of the Indian financial fiscal and monetary policy and identifies critical imperatives for recovery and renewal. We first present an analysis of major economic indicators and assess the likelihood of various economic crisis outcomes. The outcomes examined range from continued stagflation, to sovereign default, to simple fiscal and monetary crisis, to cascading banking and financial sector crisis and finally to an extreme tri-lemma type catastrophic failure. We next present summarized stakeholder solutions on actionable imperatives for crisis avoidance, economic recovery and then long term progress. The solutions are categorized as critical policy initiatives that first review and restructure with the intent to reduce inefficiency and eliminate corruption, then focus on revenue and better recognition to create new inflows and track existing flows correctly and finally look for policy actions to revive the economy to create centers for excellence and long term growth. This paper is designed to be the first in a series of papers and sets the broader context. Successive work will delve more into the details of each solution area as well elaborate on additional areas for solutions.