System dynamics modeling based analysis to combat counterfeit drugs supply chain in India

Abstract

The Counterfeit Drugs Supply Chain dynamics seem to follow a counterintuitive pattern. Despite it being targeted by law enforcement policies globally, it has been going on increasing rampantly. This paper proposes and investigates a dynamic hypothesis based on Systems approach questioning the very way in which the supplies of counterfeit drugs have been regulated. Using the modeling and simulation framework of System Dynamics, a holistic influence model has been propounded which highlights the mutual interplay of influencing factors in major sub-sectors having circular causality under the Counterfeit Drugs supply chain ecosystem. With the support of empirical facts and data, long-term impacts of various decision scenarios have been simulated to assess alternative policy for giving a holistic response to dismantle Counterfeit Drugs (CFD) markets in India. The goal of this research is to identify the key policy intervention points that are critical for this purpose. It was also intended to assess the cascading effect that these interventionist decisions create over the entire chain. System dynamics modeling is considered as suitable approach to investigate these key parameters impact. The motivation behind looking at counterfeiting in Indian pharmaceutical industry from a system dynamics point of view is that all the sub-sectors or stakeholders along with their impact over the central incidence of counterfeiting are included in the ecosystem modeling.