Human resource planning for Indian railways: application of Markov and renewal models in carriage and wagon workshops, Perambur, southern railway, Chennai

Abstract

Human Resource Planning is very critical for the Indian Railways but the planning process does not use established models, especially models for predicting the supply of manpower and hence there is a need to study the application of Human Resource Planning models in Indian Railways. This study attempts to apply Markovian and Renewal models of Human Resource Planning to Carriage and Wagon Works, Perambur, a compact unit of Indian Railways so that the lessons learned can be applied throughout Indian Railways. The focus of this study is on the supply side and the effort is to identify areas of shortages and surpluses in a long term time frame of ten years. The study shows that Markovian and Renewal models can be effectively utilised in predicting the supply of Human Resources by appropriate definitions of the man power grades and by capturing the major flows like promotions, retirements, recruitments etc. The Renewal models are also capable of projecting the simulated pull promotions to cater to various human resource requirement scenarios This analysis also helps to locate the areas where surplus manpower is available and also the time frame for wiping out this surplus through superannuation and promotions without going for redeployments or retrenchments. This analysis also identifies the areas of likely shortages and helps to assess the required recruitments to be done to meet the manpower gap. The present study helps to develop a methodology for predicting the supply of manpower in Indian Railways with suitable modifications in the grade structure. The present study has also revealed the need for policy changes in the management of human resources of the unit of study for ensuring efficient and equitable use of human resources.