Bus schedule rationalisation an analysis of trip completion times

Abstract

Public transit systems offer a smart option to reduce congestion in Indian cities. Due to the poor service quality of public bus transit operators, more commutes are now being completed using private transport, exacerbating traffic problems. In this paper, we examine AVL data generated by public buses in Bengaluru and identify a problem of schedule compliance for buses plying a popular route. We then undertake a time series analysis of the trip run times. We finalise on an ARIMA model and derive a forecast of completion times. We conclude with recommendations for trip scheduling.