Patterns in terror attacks in urban and semi-urban India: an empirical investigation

Abstract

Terrorism and insurgencies in India broadly fall into the following types: • those relating to the insurgency in Jammu and Kashmir; • those related to the separatist movements in North Eastern States; • violence perpetrated by left wing extremist groups; • terrorist attacks in urban and semi urban areas of India that are not obviously connected with the above three types. By making a distinction between insurgencies and terrorist attacks this report addresses terrorist incidents in urban and semi urban areas of India. The Mumbai 1993 multiple bomb blast was the first incident of this kind. Since then several incidents have occurred in various parts of the country. This report describes the efforts taken to build a data base of such incidents. Data for this purpose has been drawn from the English newspapers published in India. The data base includes: Name of the incident; The date of the incident; Location; State; Special events associated with the date if any; Type of attack; Number of bombs; Explosives used in the bomb; Delivery method; Number killed; Number injured. Currently the incidents that occurred between 1993 and 2010 are included in this data base. There is also a provision to update this database. Initial analysis of this data provides basic statistics on the terrorism problem. These statistics in conjunction with linked narratives on each of the incidents together provide a more comprehensive picture of how these attacks were planned, organized and executed. Although data on some of the variables is still missing, having a database of this type has many advantages. Using standard clustering algorithms it has been possible to group the incidents into ten clusters. These clusters are differentiated primarily by the bomb materials used, the delivery vehicles and whether the incidents are single or multiple bomb blasts. The availability of such a database has also enabled us to carry out a spatial analysis of the bomb placements in the case of multiple bomb blast incidents. A preliminary analysis shows that in some of the incidents the bombs were placed randomly showing a lack of sophistication. In some cases the bombs were clustered while in some cases some amount of regularity is observed. This kind of analysis if carried out with complete data will help to classify the perpetrator groups in terms of their organization capabilities and level of sophistication in carrying out such attacks. Problems of linking terror attacks to geography and time along with clustering and spatial analysis may permit a more organized way to look for patterns in these attacks. This is a preliminary report of the study carried out by the International Strategic and Security Studies Programme (ISSSP) of the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS) and brings into focus several questions that need to be addressed in order to understand the problem of terrorism in India.