Real exchange rate volatility and employment: Role of external sector exposure

Abstract

This paper studies the impact of real exchange rate volatility on firm level employment using a difference-in-difference model applied on a panel of 900 manufacturing firms. Trade exposure as measured by the difference between the shares of exports and imports in a firm’s total revenues and input costs respectively, emerges as an important determinant of firm’s response to higher exchange rate volatility. Firms with a positive trade exposure are found to experience a larger increase, or a smaller decrease, in employment growth than similar “non-exposed” firms in response to an increase in real exchange rate volatility. The impact of exchange rate volatility on employment is found to be non-linear in trade exposure. Finally, domestically owned firms respond differently to exchange rate shocks as compared to the foreign owned firms. Similarly, exporters respond differently to higher exchange rate volatility than the non-exporters.