Analysing the North Korean crisis from a game theory point of view

Abstract

In 1945 with the end of World War II, the Korean peninsula was divided into two halves separated by 38th parallel zone. One side of the Korean peninsula was occupied by USSR who established Kim Sung II as the leader of the nation which was to be called Democratic People of North Korea or DPRK. The southern half, or South Korea was to be formally known as Republic of Korea and was occupied by US. That day it wasn’t as if two nations were born. Two ideologies which had hitherto split the world had found new territories of engagement. Two Korean powers went to war in 1950 and it only ended in 1953 through an armistice which holds till day. 38th parallel, the line separating the two nations is one of the most militarised zones of the world. This study is an attempt to understand how things reached where they have. What history have the two nations shared over the past 72 years that they have lived separately. What beliefs, ideologies, philosophy and policies shape these nations. The paper begins by first looking at the brief history of how these nations were born. It then explores the ideological underpinnings of the North Korean society to understand how it has remained steadfast in face of famines and heavy sanctions. Next it looks at the Kim dynasty and the characteristics of the three Kims that have ruled North Korea for last 72 years. The paper next moves on to understanding the North Korean economy and how it has withstood such heavy sanctions imposed by UN, USA, Europe, Japan and South Korea. The next part looks at the nuclear crisis and the events that have led to it being what it is today. The paper studies the various diplomatic efforts that have been made to resolve the crisis. Finally, the paper looks at the potential scenarios that the crisis may evolve into. One off the scenarios we explore in detail is the re-unification of both countries, a state that they were in till 1945. Reunification is an ideal state but will have its own costs. We finally conclude the paper with our thoughts on which of the scenarios is most likely to prevail.