Optimizing football betting odds to maximize profits

Abstract

In an UN Conference that was held in Doha, recently, it was announced that the global sports betting market is worth $3 trillion, majority of it is from illegal gambling. According to Patrick Jay, an independent betting expert based out of UK, a whopping 65% of it was spent on football, while 12% was spent each on tennis and cricket. Asian market is reported to be the center of the sports gambling. In-play betting, the most recent variant, is an attractive proposition for any sports betting enthusiast. It allows bettors to place bets while the match is in progress. As it provides an opportunity to mitigate risks placed on bets – for example, for a person, who had placed bets before the match starts, can place bets on an informed choice while the game is on based on events that are happening in the match – it’s getting traction amongst the betting community, in particular amongst the football betting community. Sports betting major, William Hill claims that in-play gambling grew by 95% in the initial six months of 2011 and accounted for 63% of all betting.1 Football in-play betting involves betting real-time on any of final goals tally, match outcome, next goal-scorer etc. The odds involved vary alongside the match. The variation is a function of various occurrences that happened in the match and the pattern of betting till that match. However, the odds for an outcome are never a perfect representation of the corresponding probability of that outcome. A thorough estimation of these probabilities and understanding of betting behavior can allow bookmakers to maximize their profits. Likewise, bettors can take advantage of this mismatch in order to ensure positive returns over the long-run. The estimation and understanding is what this project attempts to do.