Does vote-buying pay off? Using India's demonetisation to examine effects on election results

Abstract

There is plenty of anecdotal evidence suggesting that vote-buying is pervasive in India (Chilkoti 2014). There is also a growing literature that argues that politicians buy votes strategically, in order to increase the chances of their success in the election. However, in a world where secret ballot ensures that a voter's actual vote is not observable, it is not obvious that individuals who accept cash-for-votes from a particular party actually vote for that party. It could also be that individuals accept cash-for-votes or other benefits from all parties, so that in equilibrium the cash-for-votes have no effect on election outcomes, and voters actually vote on the basis of some other criterion (e.g. the party's governance record, or its policy platform).