Decision making under high complexity: A computational model for the science of muddli

Abstract

It is well recognized that many organizations operate under situations of high complexity that arises from pervasive interdependencies between their decision elements. While prior work has discussed the benefits of low to moderate complexity, the literature on how to cope with high complexity is relatively sparse. In this study, we seek to demonstrate that Lindblom's decision-making principle of muddlingthrough is a very effective approach that organizations can use to cope with high complexity. Using a computational simulation (NK) model, we show that Lindblom's muddlingthrough approach obtains outcomes superior to those obtained from boundedly rational decision-making approaches when complexity is high. Moreover, our results also show that muddlingthrough is an appropriate vehicle for bringing in radical organizational change or far-reaching adaptation.