Prediction of industry corporate profitability using macroeconomic indicators: Axis Bank

Abstract

This project aims to predict the relationship of corporate profitability for various industries in India based on relevant macroeconomic indicators which describe the state of the economy, both in the country and worldwide. Industries of vast importance to India, like Ferrous metals, Textiles, Real Estate, Automobiles, Ports, Petroleum products and Other Chemicals have been selected and literature from various sources reviewed to understand which are the factors that are likely to affect the profitability for each industry. Quarterly data pertaining to all these macroeconomic factors have been collected for 15 years and the aggregate EBITDA values for the industries selected have been collated. A forecasting model has been prepared for each industry based on the movement of those macroeconomic factors which are seen to be bearing a significant relationship with the changes in EBITDA values over the period taken