Future of Indian auto industry: choices and challenges

Abstract

This study lays out the technological opportunities that stand in front of the Indian auto industry, with focus on the passenger vehicles, limited to cars. It attempts to understand the levers that will influence adoption of emerging new technologies and aims to explain the choices that will be pursued by the Indian auto players. The opportunities include connectivity, electrified powertrains, autonomous vehicles, and industry 4.0. Clearly Government regulations and market pull are the most important factors that will influence auto OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers) to venture away from their traditional models of business. Interviews with leaders in the industry have revealed that they would be forced to make a move towards gradual electrification of their fleet to keep in tune with the changing market context. The challenge for OEMs will be in creating the necessary market pull for electric vehicles despite the current product and eco-system challenges. Electrification will be the major focus once the challenge of BS VI implementation is completed. Though the other technologies like connectivity, autonomy, shared mobility etc. will gain importance, these would-be parts of supplementary product attributes that will help attract customers and will not be the major proposition by themselves in isolation. The government also strongly needs to keep itself in check in nudging the Industry towards a certain direction. It must withstand the temptation to take decisions on behalf of the industry and let the market forces decide which technology/opportunity should be adopted. We end by proposing a policy direction for the government which uses a weighted average based emission standard for every manufacturer.